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Posts tagged ‘elections’

STRIKE RATE – A Media Concoction!


Strike rate is a concept which has been popularised in the context of Cricket, both in bowling as well as batting. When a batsman has faced a certain number of balls, the number of balls faced becomes the denominator and the runs scored becomes the numerator. The resultant product is the Strike rate. Likewise in bowling, the product of the total number of balls bowled divided by the number of wickets taken would be called STRIKE RATE.

Importing this concept into Elections may help inflate and deflate the egos of many leaders of political parties, but is it the right way to assess the result? I guess not.

In electoral politics, this concept has been imported to mean the product arrived at by dividing the total number of seats contested by a party divided by the number of seats won and multiplying it by 100.

This concept is being bandied about to camouflage the dismal performance of some parties. When there is coalition, there are bound to be alliances and seat sharing consequently. When the seat sharing takes place, alliance partners do not contest in the same seats; and the final count of wins becoming the denominator of the total seats contested, and multiplied by 100, ignores a very important aspect.

In an alliance, not only there is seat sharing – which means the un-contesting partner in an alliance not merely forgoes an opportunity to contest in the constituency, but also helps his partner in the contest by providing resources, moral support and all other support to ensure that the alliance partner wins.

But of late, some in a partnership just about forego contesting in favour of a partner and not only ensure that they do not provide the necessary support, but also secretly ensure that transference of their party votes do not take place.

This kind of practice happens when disparate elements which do neither have congruence of interests nor being birds of similar feather merely flock together, with the intention of ensuring that someone else does not capture power or to have a bigger bargaining power even within the alliance.

In the Israeli elections, if noted carefully, this would be visible.

The final effect is that within the same alliance partners there are rich partners with unlimited resources and indigent ones also. Further transference of votes become osmotic, the weaker partner’s cadres vote as per alliance whereas the stronger and economically stronger parties don’t feel obligated to go to the booth to cast their votes. There are no boasting rights in having voted for a candidate, who probably doesn’t belong to one’s own caste or creed or belief. This indifference creeps in and the party leadership is not overly concerned with getting their base voters to the booth in a constituency where their party candidate is not nominated!

In this scenario, the Media, especially the electronic media goes to town exalting certain parties, for their own oblique reasons, and ascribing a higher STRIKE RATE to such parties, is ludicrous.

It is time that the Media gets into educating the public and laying open the internecine strategies practised by certain parties to ride on the strength of their alliance partners and pretend to be reciprocating, whereas all that they do is stymie the resources of alliance parties and ensure that transference of votes do not take place, and ensure that their parties fatten their electorate base by cannibalising other parties in the bargain.

THAMIZH NADU ELECTION RESULTS!


Before reading this blog it is imperative to go through my blog dated 29/04/2011 to fully appreciate my point of view. The link is given below:

https://movid.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/post-poll-analysis-for-thamizhnadu-assembly/

When i wrote my blog mentioned above, i had access to the post poll analysis conducted by THE HEADLINES TODAY! Which CATEGORICALLY stated that the DMK had caught up with the AIADMK. “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” That was the perceptive Benjamin Disraeli! How true, i had given my reasons as to why the predictions by HEADLINES TODAY would never come to pass.

There were at least a dozen of my friends who had asked me why I had to take sides where i COULD go wrong. My answer was simple: i wasn’t taking sides, in fact i couldn’t be bothered as to who ruled Thamizh Nadu, as i as an individual have to still give Rs 50/- to get my community certificate or get a certified copy of any public document from the registrar’s office. So things are not going to change for me, yet as an INDIVIDUAL empowered by the CONSTITUTION OF INDIA, i am at LIBERTY to express my opinion on another opinion. Only thing was that HEADLINES TODAY had bolstered their prejudiced/ half baked wishfulness through the instrument of STATISTICS.

I merely said that their interpretations were wrong for reasons enumerated in my earlier blog.

By hindsight, i stand VINDICATED. There was not merely a WAVE but a TSUNAMI.

Look at the figures 201/234 in Thamizh Nadu. 225/294 in West Bengal. If we work out the percentages AIADMK and its allies have taken 85.897% of the Assembly seats and in Bengal ( i hate the tag “WEST” in  BENGAL as the state is geographically located in the Eastern part of India and it is time we as self-respecting Indians call it Bengal- like PEPSU states became just PUNJAB and not EAST PUNJAB!) TMC and their allies have taken 76.53% seats in the Bengal assembly.  So the point is , what happened in Bengal is a WAVE and what happened in THAMIZH NADU is TSUNAMI!

Secondly, when you put a Thamizhan under a microscope, do not rule out the possibility that he is scrutinizing the OBSERVER through the very same lens through which the observer is observing! A Thamizhan knows the paid young boys and girls sent with a questionnaire to quiz his preferences and how the data thus collected is freely given to anyone willing to pay for it. More than anything else a THAMIZHAN is more apt to give you an answer you EXPECT him to give- not necessarily the TRUTH, all because he knows that TRUTH could be verified but OPINIONS are beyond another person’s verifiability. A Thamizhan is no idiot to give his answers for you to build up your credibility and bank balance! He knows why exactly you ask him those convoluted questions in repeatedly after asking some inane questions.

You may call it ORG, MARG, FARG, TARG for all he cares, yet he is not going to give his opinion unless he believes you and you give him an assurance that you VALUE his opinion. That is why the OPINIONSTERS miserably fail in Thamizh Nadu. Good luck to them in future.

The MEDIA seems to be angry that it has not been able to get the scale of the win right. However CNN-IBN  and one more TV channel predicted the win of Jayalalitha. They were closer to the TRUTH. Simply put, their interviewers built a rapport with the interviewee to get that far.

The winner in Thamizh Nadu is THE ELECTION COMMISSION of INDIA. The way they curbed the flow of cash, contained booth capturing and other activities deleterious to DEMOCRACY is truly commendable. If hooligans and hoodlums are allowed to control the election process,  DEMOCRACY dwindles to FEUDALISM. The bold decision to replace the DGP of Thamizh Nadu during elections not only showed who was in CONTROL but also sent a strong message to all and sundry about  the goings on in the state.

The meaning of SECRET BALLOT is fully fulfilled only in the state of THAMIZH NADU. The THAMIZH people have shown again that there is no need to show their hand to these marketing agencies which peddle the details collected as statistical “truths”!

THAMIZH NADU VAAZHGA!

Thamizh Nadu Assembly elections!


If an Indian believes that it is the Parliament elctions which are important and not the ASSEMBLY Elections, then he  is greatly mistaken. To put it in perspective, ASSEMBLY ELECTION means, ELECTIONS for the Goverment authorized by the Constitution of India to Legislate on issues mentioned at List 2 and List 3 to the SEVENTH SCHEDULE to the Constitution. But somewhere in the JINGOISM propagated in the name of Nationalism, our Indian folks have been led to believe that the Assembly elections are not of much consequence.

True development of a State (which is the basic building block of the Nation) depends on the Policies formulated, implemented and relentlessly pursued by the State. Each State of India has inherent advantages as well as challenges, for example Kerala as a state has always had a slew of cash crops and copious rains have kept the state fertile, but the challenge is HOW TO MAKE THE PEOPLE OF KERALA  A PART OF THE WORKFORCE OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE  and INITIATIVE? Let us contrast Kerala with Rajasthan which has severe shortage of rains and land which is uncultivable 9 months a year. In Rajasthan water is the scarecest and thereby CONSERVATION is in-built in their system. Kerala may fight for water with Thamizh Nadu, but the vegetation which one could see in Kerala gives one a feeling of the Amazon forest. That is Kerala. With 93% literacy and surrounded by plenty, the denizens of Kerala have built an “attitude” of SELF RESPECT. The first question which comes to the mind of a Keralite is WHY SHOULD I DO IT AND WHO BENEFITS MOST FROM ANY PROPOSED ACTIVITY. This leads to a lot of historical questions, like WHERE is he from? WHO is his father? WHAT is his caste? Is he a COMMUNIST? Does he believe in God? etc.. This preliminary screening by the literate leads to prejudoiced conclusions and hence their “attitube” could be downright NEGATIVE. KERALITES love their LAND, naturally as it is fertile and fetches cash even if one doesn’t do anything much with the land. A kind of lazy agrarian attitude.

Rajasthan people’s challenges makew them more hard working. One could find a certain eagerness to make things better for everyone. But the literacy levels are not comparable with Kerala. They keep their habits spartan, which is the beginning of CONSERVATION, which has finally led them to save money and identify hard working people and lend them money and in turn  get their returns.

Another typical state is Thamizh Nadu, where people are skilled and hard working, but their challenge is their attitude of being  ENTERPRISE AVERSE. They may start a hospital- if he is a physician /surgeon, but they would never ever build an ENTERPRISE without being skilled in that area. There may be business houses like TVS, AMALGAMATIONS GROUP which have huge market share in their line of business, but like ROME those were not BUILT IN A DAY. They have been sustained thru generations of relentless hardwork. As a people, Thamizhans do not want to take risks which COULD GO BAD. They contribute to the blossoming of the MANUFACTURING SECTOR, as they are assured of their INCOME from their skills and a regular life with enough time for family and entertainment. As a State having 69,000 temples, they are fatalistic in the outcome, buit rational in their social intercourse. 

So each State government has to build its own set of priorities  . And therefore ASSEMBLY elections are the backbone of the NATION. The issues wich are mentioned in LIST 1 of the VII Schedule are regulated, monitored by The Central Goverment, but no IMPETUS is provided the Central Government  with relation to the subject matters which fall in List 1. For example there are no melas for becoming research fellows or scientists in Space Technology, there are no advertisements for educating people on patents etc.. Persons of their own initiative reach those areas. A person who manufactures a central excisable product learns it by accident and starts paying Central Excise duty.  Such is SERVICE TAX etc etc. The Central Goverment does not have to educate people to enter into areas which fall within List 1. But the State subjects are opportunities which are propagated by the State and people in a state are educated therein. Therefore the State elections have a deeper impact on the day-to-day lives of its people.

With WELFARE STATE being given a different meaning by the political parties, even the freebies form a part of the governance. The Central government may grant loan waivers to farmers etc., but it is the State Government which gives TVs at 0 cost, rice at a rupee a liko, free noon meal  to kids at school etc. These actual deliveries which reach the population of a state are palpable. That is why we have the elections for a state which show that power is truly with the states when it comes to the development of the state.

The fight between the DMK Alliance and the AIDMK Alliance has reached a feverish pitch and the Election Commision is finding the goings on in the State of Thamizh Nadu curiouser and curiouser!

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