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Why did DMK lose TN 2016?


The question is NOT How Jayalalitha won the elections in TN, but How did DMK lose in TN?
Let’s go back to some of the fundamental assumptions which preceded the elections in TN.

1. There is anti incumbency, as historically since 1984, TN voters have never re-elected the party which ran the Govt.

2. Both the veterans Dr. M. K and Dr. J.J have not been keeping well, so if not now, the persons who had proclaimed themselves as CM candidates in this election,  would have a head start in the next

3. Dr. Anbu was the first who declared himself as a CM Contestant, forcing the hands of Vijayakanth, thereby putting paid for the hopes for an alliance of DMK with DMDK.

4. Once VAIKO cobbled up his Naidu/Dalit/Communist platform, Vijayakanth’s past vote percentage gave him the primacy to lead the alliance.

It is in this background that the elections in TN was fought.

In effect, since Dr. MK didn’t want to alienate his cadres and also rouse Azhagiri’s overt resistance, he declared himself the CM candidate of the DMK.
In effect, it was suspected that Stalin was trying to upstage Dr. MK in a future date, after an imagined win by DMK.

BJP and the Congress did not make any open announcements, as the former was constrained by self doubts, and the latter had split into TMC of Vaasan and the other by Elangovan. 
So Vaasan fell in line with VAIKO and in effect there was Dr.JJ as the only serious candidate and the rest were either a pretext for someone else – like Dr. MK was for Stalin. The rest were all pretenders wanting precedence in the next elections.

For political parties it is strategy and vote banks – nothing else matters.

Voters may not be serious but they are sincere. They found that except for Dr. JJ, there was NO OTHER SERIOUS CM CANDIDATE IN THE FRAY IN TN 2016! 
Without sincerity there is no such thing as a promise . If one is NOT sincere about wanting to become the CM of TN, how can one trust the promises made by him/her? 
No doubt, Dr.JJ moves slowly, but her clarity in expression and request to the people of TN for their votes, based on citing her past performance had a RING OF SINCERITY, if not a ring of truth to it. However, Dr. MK’s request was a benami transaction of seeking vote for Stalin, and at his will could hand over, if not forced to hand over, the reins of the government if DMK won. Dr. MK’s voice had the telling gruffness, but not the clarity. In effect, the people of TN had to choose someone who sounded sincere and that left her as the only choice, with a dash of sympathy – as they saw her combativeness and imperiousness had subsided and Sincerity stood out, albeit with a tinge of arrogance.

Therefore, essentially in TN if anyone asks for power with Sincerity, people do favourably consider that.
One of the main reasons for a strong showing was DMK’s guiltless promise of economic revival coupled with relentless effort. Why “guiltless”? because DMK felt that the scam allegations have already been paid for, in the form of the 2014 parliament elections. That was not entirely correct, people remembered the allegations as much as the 20 year old allegations against Dr. JJ for her amassing of wealth. But DMK cadres are not prone to introspection unlike the not so belligerent AIADMK, consequently, DMK’s campaign was vibrant, full-throated & remorseless. This gave an impression that DMK had won over the media, it seemed more as cornering the media space than fairly playing the game. 

TRANSFERENCE of Congress votes was total in favour of DMK, but DMK votes in favour of Congress was dismal. Probably, post win DMK did not want a congress with 25-30 MLAs, if DMK itself hit only 100 MLAs- that would make DMK vulnerable, which was the case in 2011, which invited a refrained jibe of “minority Govt” from Dr. JJ! This obviously cost DMK a strike at the power, unfortunately, DMK WHICH IS PRONE TO EXTROVERSION IS UNABLE TO SEE IT, MUCH LESS ADMIT IT! 
PROHIBITION, was not DMK agenda brought before the Tamil electorate, it was Dr. Ramadoss’ initiative, borrowed and drum-beaten as a tool against Dr. JJ ! Dr JJ couldn’t have agreed to total prohibition, as the parties would have asked her to implement it immediately, as she was in power. Therefore she came up with the “phased manner” concept, which probably went down well with the regular TASMACers! Who knows if the differential percentage was those who apprehended prohibition ? Maybe, DMK lost on that count too.

To say that this election was without anti incumbency is a fraud, the reality seems that SINCERITY, TRANSFERENCE and PROHIBITION went against the DMK and nullified the anti incumbency gains. 

Thamizh Nadu state elections!


Predicting the winner in the state elections of Thamizh Nadu is easier than formulating the pattern of media behaviour and psephologists. But, believe you me, there is an undeniable pattern to their behaviour.
Psephologists:

They are a breed which surfaces every lustrum. Till then they keep providing ‘consultancy’, an amorphous rather a protean nomenclature which is fastened to any freelancing activity which takes advantage of knowledge and contacts for unimaginable gains. The gain is not for nothing, they monitor the trend of the voting masses. They ignore the non voting electorate and pitch on those who vote. Secondly they mingle to find out the aspirations of the voting types.

Aspirations being of two types, they do not inform that they segregate the economic aspirations from their social aspirations. Once this is segregated, they inform through various media that the whole electorate is after this or that SOCIAL ASPIRATION. This creates a bandwagon effect and coagulates further to the core the consultant created. Next he provides ‘consultation’ to a party to which he has been affiliated through ideology or remuneration. There he explains to the party think tank that there is a coagulating group which has aspirations for certain ECONOMIC ASPIRATIONS and unleashes it. That forms the manifesto of the party – a lure to hook the gullible voter.

Then there are those POSTULATES, which the clever ones formulate and propagate to the point of a cliche. E.g. ANTI-INCUMBENCY. – this is a standard piece of jargon which substitutes well when their predictions go wrong.

BANDWAGON EFFECT – this is one more jargon to the point of cliche, that it is a less sophisticated one and had been in use a lot longer than the previous one and probably heading towards retirement by the next lustrum!

MATHEMATICAL & STATISTICAL BS– when words fail, numbers are invoked to obfuscate facts. Facts are better countered by numbers than letters. If that fails, STATISTICS, which is alphanumeric is invoked, where they are sure that none would understand it and left wondering, as they believe that as they have not understood it, none can!

Psephologists are saprophytes, which live ON but not OFF!
These need the MEDIA.

Just as an army marches on its stomach, this one which used to live off the governmental newsprint and advertisement, lives ON ADVERTISEMENTS- the paid ones, not the governmental ones which are either statutory or bill based. The bill is a threat which a legislator could use against an interest group. The threat is that, the power of the day would make an Act, which might take the cream off, at one stroke.
The advertisers are companies mostly, who have a product or service, which are busy building a brand or staving off other companies from superseding their brand image. Therefore they fund movies which have greater viewership and cost more per telecast. They pay triple or quintuple the normal Advt charges and keep themselves afloat during the churning of the people who end up running the Govt. So  Psephologists start by making pre-election polls and purvey the desired results by going to those areas which would return their expectations. Since Psephologists are creating a voting group they start PROMOTING their affiliate party. They don’t care about their credibility, as even if one gets it dead right on the numbers, people believe that they got it by fluke; and if they got it wrong, they could slime out with their jargon or statistics. The flak that might follow would not be comparable with the benefits they could gain through being “friendly” with parties and the media. Each one is a playing referee, rather a referee who has punted in favour of one of the teams in which he is the main, rather spot referee!

TREND OF PSEPHOLOGISTS AND THE MEDIA:
The clever know that elections are Marathons in terms of Time. To be in the right side of the proverb WELL BEGUN IS HALF DONE, would be a Trojan blunder of mistaking an army for a wooden horse. The game begins in the last ten days, before the polling day.

But the media and the riding Psephologists start the game early as they are the payees and don’t lose anything, whereas the political parties, who are the payers, by starting early might become burn outs, like Dr. Ramadoss and co. But the media and Psephologists have already taken out the fat of  PMK.

Politicians decide only when a decision cannot be postponed any longer. So they wait to catch evolving trends, which they themselves could have triggered through deft deployment of the media and Psephologists. 
After the burn outs come the NAIVE ENTHUSIASTS SANS IDEOLOGY. A person like VAIKO is capable, a good man and meaning well, but his belligerence is misplaced. He lacks the organisational skills to build a platform, consequently he needs a Vijayakanth and the Communists to provide him the base, which gets crowded and he gets lost.

The long players are the ADMK oops! AIADMK, which is in the form of Dravidian vehicle manned sorry womanned by a Brahmin and a Brahminical sympathiser, and the DMK. AIADMK has a form with a different substance, she did not make it that way, when Thamihzans voted for the putative goodness of MGR, the electorate approved of such a content-form contradiction . The next is the DMK, which is a platform which is being usurped by Stalin shooting over the shoulders of Dr. MK. Stalin has the pedigree but not the mettle of his father. People of Thamizhnadu don’t even remember that he was a state minister – the better part is that even the ruling party doesn’t talk of the decisions or opportunities squandered by Stalin as a minister! 

But people know one thing that Dr. MK is being egged on by his family than out of any ambition to become CM once more. Maybe Dr. MK would want to see the back of Amma more than he wanting to become the CM.

Therefore the subliminal question nibbling at the thamizh brain is whether to Give one final chance to the saviour of the backward castes of TN or to extend the rule of a woman, who through her own making, has made herself a one woman army lumbering up and down the state. She believes that she is THE WINNER and wants to take all the credit for it, so it is not that there aren’t any second ring speakers but that she is loath to sharing credit with someone else. So no second rung leaders are empowered to campaign with gusto.  

In this election melee, the advertisers and Psephologists who had been purveying their aspirations disguised as news and science, would be groping in the darkness that they have created and in the last week before elections, would give a seesaw majority to AIADMK and leave it for fate to decide and start working on theories and hypotheses to defend how they missed the AIADMK landslide. 

That is called as the BALANCING THAMIZHAN OR IN THE WORDS OF MY NORTH INDIAN FRIENDS JELEBI!

POST POLL ANALYSIS FOR THAMIZHNADU ASSEMBLY!


HEADLINES TODAY TV has come up with a post poll analysis of the assembly elections in THAMIZHNADU. EXIT POLLS have been banned by the ELECTION COMMISSION and therefore the Psephologists have invented a method, which according to the WEBSITE takes samples by visiting houses randomly and asking the persons who had voted what their choice was.

Headlines Today News

This method of visiting houses is the WORST METHODOLOGY, as, now that the voter’s identity had been established and his house located by the sampling agency, there is 100% chance that a person who had  taken gratification for voting in a particular way, but voted according to his opinion- which would be against the interest of the gratifier- would not disclose the TRUTH.  And believe you me, the voters of Thamizhnadu disguise their preferences better than any other state in India- plz recall the Assembly elections subsequent to the Parliamentary elections of 1980! MGR won immediately after losing the Parliamentary elections.

Any sensible person would be able to assume, as to which party must have gratified more! Further everyone knows which of the two sides is likely to infuse terror in the hearts of the person who had taken gratification, and not voted according to the illegal contract!

According to the site DMK gets 48% of the voteshare and AIADMK gets 47% of the voteshare. Translated into seats DMK is supposed to get 130 seats and AIADMK 105- 120 seats. Well, this seat projection based on the voteshare seems the second blunder the HEADLINES TODAY POLL suffers from. The margins are not important for winning a seat and in fact a huge margin in a few seats may increase the voteshare but not proportionately translate into seats.

There is a third FALLACY which is being floated: THIS HIGH TURN-OUT OF 82% voters is a PRO-INCUMBENCY WAVE. Seems very unlikely. When Late KAMARAJ  gave a clean, efficient and growth oriented administration in the mid sixties, the people of Thamizhnadu were fully aware that Kamaraj was doing all that because of the pressure kept up by ANNA, besides their animosity for the  puppeteering from Delhi! So the electorate went and executed the improbable in 1967. Kamaraj’s PADUTHUKKONDAY JAYIPPEN- was nothing but a vain boast of a Right man caught in the wrong CAMP. The surge in the percentage of polling was a silent RESENTMENT of the puppeteering plus a PRO WAVE in favour of C.N.ANNADURAI. If anyone is willing to let himself believe that a 10% surge in polling is to ensure that the DMK and its allies MUST BE RETURNED to power, i have my pity on him. (if AIADMK loses then the argument would be that there  was rampant rigging by the winner, and therefore the percentage of polling went up!!).

The 80% voting is , according to me, a surge by the people of Thamizhnadu to dislodge a party which gave the people a fraction of what it made itself! It is a vote of silent resentment. It is a vote for a change and most importantly to deprive a person, of  a successive term to prevent him from covering up the deeds of the last term!

Let us see, and FRIDAY the 13th of MAY might exorcise a lot more than all our speculation.

Kushboo & DMK!


Dravida Munnetra Khazhagam (DMK) is the party founded by Arignar Anna, with the avowed social philosophy that without Political Power there is no scope of converting the party’s Social Phiolosophy into a Social Reality. In the process they went iconoclastic and truly went around damaging the statues and the priests who, they claimed, exploited the masses in the name of Gods and Goddesses.

Cut back a few decades later and we find a Mumbai born Muslim girl, who could not find her feet in Mumbai  Hindi film industry make it to stratospheric heights in the Thamizh film industry. Kushboo was elevated to the level of a GODDESS. A temple was built, with Kushboo as the presiding deity!

TamilNadu has 69,000 temples and the 69,001st temple was dedicated to Devi Kushboo.

Now DMK, a party that prided on Godlessness, has got a new member. Kushboo is a primary card holding member of the DMK!!

A Goddess in the fold of ATHEISTS!

I LOVE IT. DMK may still be a Godless party, but now with Kushboo around, DMK is not a GODDESSLESS party!!

Tamil Nadu, i love you and the politics which has no precedent and is always setting new mile stones in INNOVATIVE POLITICS!!

MOTHER OF ALL QUESTIONS!!


In the News Channel NDTV, Dr.Prannoy Roy asked the panelists whether the North Indians are likely to elect an Actor centric party like in the South of India.

The reasons were on expected lines, with a OH! WE IN THE NORTH ARE SO SUPERIOR, THAT WE DO NOT ALLOW THAT MUCH LEEWAY TO OUR ENTERTAINERS!!

The Southern states were predominantly composed of the Madras state, Mysore state, Travancore-Cochin state, and a host of smaller vassal princely states besides Nizam’s territories. With the division of states on linguistic basis in the late fifties, states were crystallized based on the language and the culture was duly reflected in the languages such as Tamil, Malayalam, Telugu and Kannada. Therefore there was a UNITY IN CULTURE WITH LANGUAGE AS THE BASIS. This brought out a HOMOGENEITY within the Southern states, whereas in the state of Bihar there are minimum 3 well known languages viz. Bhojpuri, Mythili and Angeeka, with distinct cultural uniqueness yet one cannot view those cultural uniqueness thru movies, but have to travel to Bihar to savour those.

Likewise Haryana has Haryanvi, Punjab has Punjabi, UP has Hindustani, Awadhi and Urdu etc., and each language brings its own flavour but such flavours are not brought out in the main stream Hindi cinema. Instead in the Hindi cinema there is a lot of stereotyping. For example a Tamilian is portrayed as a devout Brahmin timid and mostly called THAMBI!! Likewise, with regard to many states the stereotyping goes on for easier understanding of the illiterate masses of the Indo-Gangetic plains!!

Therefore the Heroes of Hindi movies are a jumble reflecting a wide variety of traits, which could be at variance with one another culturally. They cannot unify the population of even a state, leave alone the NORTH as a whole. At best, they could only get a ticket to contest from an established political party and contribute their popular visibility to the party that had offered them the ticket. In fact in the 2004 elections NONE OF THE MOVIE STARS WHO CONTESTED THE LOK SABHA ELECTIONS from the North LOST! Therefore it is the lack of CULTURAL HOMOGENEITY and lack of a POLITICAL PARTY that had prevented the movie stars from the Hindi industry from having such a sway. However the Cricket stars have done pretty well in the Northern states- eg Chetan Chauhan, Navjot Sidhu, Kirti Azad and even Azharuddin, who have all leveraged their popularity and become prominent politicians. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration, if one thinks that Cricket stars are more welcome in the Northern states than cine stars merely for the above mentioned reasons!!

Moreover there have been many movie stars who had tried their hands at Politics and lost. For each MGR,there are 50 others who faded without a trace. It must be understood that MGR did not make it merely on his film popularity, he was the EYE-CATCHER used by C.N.Annadurai (whose knowledge and social understanding were phenomenal) to popularize the party policies thru his movies. It was this visibility that he gained which came in handy when he was made to throw in his hat in the ring, by the wily R.Venkataraman, for decimating the sway of the DMK.

It would be too simplistic to say that movie stars make it in the Southern states as political chiefs whereas in the Northern states such tamashe is not allowed. There is no cultural unity in the northern movies, further the political ideologies have not been spread thru the movies as it has been done in the southern states.

If one were to look into the recent award given to Vivek, a Tamil comedian, it has been stated by no less a person than Dr.Abdul Kalam that the award was for playing roles that educated the movie going masses in Tamilnadu. The process of education that is carried forward in the Southern languages, thru Cinema, is considerable. In fact, i am filled with pity when the majority of the Gangetic plains of India, does not have a medium to reflect, voice, disseminate its culture except thru the eyes of the Financiers and the cine industry of Mumbai.

Further by hindsight, the PRP of Andhra Pradesh, despite the movie popularity of Chranjeevi could not duplicate the feat of NTR in the recently concluded 2009 Parliament elections in the state. Kerala as a state has never propped any cine star in the political set up of the state. Therefore to class all the southern states, as movie crazy is too simplistic and fallacious.

The important point to be noted is that since Independence, the South Eastern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have performed better than the national average in terms of literacy, productivity and development in general, so entertainment has become an integral part of the lives of the common man and as a proof, in Tamil Nadu, every household below poverty line has been promised/given a TV. They have moved over from Re.1/- for a Kg of rice to ENTERTAINMENT.

Dr.Roy’s premise seems to have an in-built ignorance in the framing of the question. Bias is inevitable, but giving those biases the respectability of  National debate is preposterous!!

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