Here Charitable Individualism is the key!… nothing less.


HEADLINES TODAY TV has come up with a post poll analysis of the assembly elections in THAMIZHNADU. EXIT POLLS have been banned by the ELECTION COMMISSION and therefore the Psephologists have invented a method, which according to the WEBSITE takes samples by visiting houses randomly and asking the persons who had voted what their choice was.

Headlines Today News

This method of visiting houses is the WORST METHODOLOGY, as, now that the voter’s identity had been established and his house located by the sampling agency, there is 100% chance that a person who had  taken gratification for voting in a particular way, but voted according to his opinion- which would be against the interest of the gratifier- would not disclose the TRUTH.  And believe you me, the voters of Thamizhnadu disguise their preferences better than any other state in India- plz recall the Assembly elections subsequent to the Parliamentary elections of 1980! MGR won immediately after losing the Parliamentary elections.

Any sensible person would be able to assume, as to which party must have gratified more! Further everyone knows which of the two sides is likely to infuse terror in the hearts of the person who had taken gratification, and not voted according to the illegal contract!

According to the site DMK gets 48% of the voteshare and AIADMK gets 47% of the voteshare. Translated into seats DMK is supposed to get 130 seats and AIADMK 105- 120 seats. Well, this seat projection based on the voteshare seems the second blunder the HEADLINES TODAY POLL suffers from. The margins are not important for winning a seat and in fact a huge margin in a few seats may increase the voteshare but not proportionately translate into seats.

There is a third FALLACY which is being floated: THIS HIGH TURN-OUT OF 82% voters is a PRO-INCUMBENCY WAVE. Seems very unlikely. When Late KAMARAJ  gave a clean, efficient and growth oriented administration in the mid sixties, the people of Thamizhnadu were fully aware that Kamaraj was doing all that because of the pressure kept up by ANNA, besides their animosity for the  puppeteering from Delhi! So the electorate went and executed the improbable in 1967. Kamaraj’s PADUTHUKKONDAY JAYIPPEN- was nothing but a vain boast of a Right man caught in the wrong CAMP. The surge in the percentage of polling was a silent RESENTMENT of the puppeteering plus a PRO WAVE in favour of C.N.ANNADURAI. If anyone is willing to let himself believe that a 10% surge in polling is to ensure that the DMK and its allies MUST BE RETURNED to power, i have my pity on him. (if AIADMK loses then the argument would be that there  was rampant rigging by the winner, and therefore the percentage of polling went up!!).

The 80% voting is , according to me, a surge by the people of Thamizhnadu to dislodge a party which gave the people a fraction of what it made itself! It is a vote of silent resentment. It is a vote for a change and most importantly to deprive a person, of  a successive term to prevent him from covering up the deeds of the last term!

Let us see, and FRIDAY the 13th of MAY might exorcise a lot more than all our speculation.

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Comments on: "POST POLL ANALYSIS FOR THAMIZHNADU ASSEMBLY!" (3)

  1. Post poll analysis and the results in TN is likely to be tangentilly opoosite. The mediaprojections need not be correct. For EX No one predicted the come back of Nitishkumar.

  2. 80% polling in Thamizh Nadu is not a WAVE, but a TSUNAMI. My prediction is that the apparent silence on the surface is gonna blow up on the face of the incumbents.
    Astrologically speaking- there is not much of a difference between where the Saturn was in 1980 and where it is presently! 30 years and a full cycle!
    Let us observe and read the winds of change and the undersea earthquakes accurately.

  3. This post was put up much before CNN-IBN was emboldened to come up with a CNN-IBN & THE WEEK post poll opinion poll where they give a slender majority for AIADMK and their alliance.
    Now we have (as on the 12th May, 2011) 3 different poll results and 2 of those have emboldened themselves to give opinion against DMK!
    While DMK is in power it is very difficult to imagine that they could lose.
    Another funny thing was that while debates on WB and TN elections WERE ON,one Bengali participant said that TN elections have become commercialized, whereas WB elections are IDEOLOGICAL!
    HOW FALLACIOUS.
    WB is a poor state with no comparable industrial out put. It is not per capita income which should form the basis of our assessments, but as to PER CAPITA OUTPUT!
    Tamil Nadu despite a high level of poverty has a WILLING and CAPABLE WORK FORCE. Naturally there is more money in circulation. When rich people visit each other they take GIFTS, sometimes expensive gifts. If a poor man seeing this thinks that their relationship is built on such gifts, he is WRONG. In TN, there is enormous opportunity and in TN ELECTION TIME is SHARING TIME and this cannot be compared with the LAZY Bengal!
    Bengalis are yet to recover from what WARREN HASTINGS and CURZON have done to them! Wake up Bengal, do something and catch up with the rest. COMMUNISM is no way to prosperity, it is REGULATED CAPITALISM ( the enterprising and the ambitious work and get work done and the Government taxes them and distributes to the less fortunate) which is the way forward. That is the formula. History is not to be used for either consoling ourselves or for dwelling on past glory. This is the day- KEEP DOING WHATEVER YOU ARE GOOD AT!
    So I am eagerly awaiting FRIDAY the THIRTEENTH 2011 for TN election results.

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